Background
The client is a global pharmaceutical company specializing in brain health, with a large sales force across Canada. They needed to modernize their sales quota-setting process, especially for two high-performing drugs. Their existing process was manual and based mostly on historical sales data.
Challenge
The traditional forecasting approach had several limitations: • Manual effort: Time-consuming • Multiple influencing factors: Sales quotas were shaped by historical sales, competitor activity, physician prescribing behavior, and market dynamics. • Data fragmentation: These variables were stored across different tables, making integration complex. The client needed a data-driven, automated solution that could integrate multiple data tables and provide accurate, granular forecasts
Approach
Implemented best AI/ML model approach in the forecasting solution using the following steps: 1. Data Integration: Pulled data from IQVIA, including: - Historical sales - Physician data - Market trends - Competitor performance 2. Data Preparation: - Cleaned and structured the data - Engineered drug-specific features to improve model relevance 3. Modeling Techniques: - Used a combination of SARIMA (for time series), Random Forest, and XGBoost (for pattern recognition and prediction) - selected the best fit model - Trained models to forecast monthly sales at the MSA level
Key results
Benefits
By integrating various data sources, including historical sales, physician data, and market trends, and employing a combination of advanced AI/ML models like SARIMA, Random Forest, and XGBoost, Keyrus developed a solution that achieved approximately 70% forecast accuracy at the MSA and monthly levels. This automated, data-driven system significantly reduced manual workload and human error, enabling more timely and effective sales planning while also being scalable for future use on other drugs.
Technology partners
Python
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